Haugesund 2–0 Sturm Graz: Result & Stats

Haugesund

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sturm Graz

N. Sandberg 64'

K. Krygård 51'

7/25/2019

UEFA Europa League · 2nd Qualifying RoundHaugesund Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Haugesund73%

×Draw17%

Sturm Graz10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HaugesundExpected goals in this matchSturm Graz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

0.67

Haugesund

2.25

Sturm Graz

0.67

Haugesund creates 236% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 12 away

2.33

creates per match

0.67

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

Haugesund

2.33

Sturm Graz

0.67

allows per match

Haugesund

0.67

Sturm Graz

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Haugesund+0.00on par

Sturm Graz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haugesund ↓

Sturm Graz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–17%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Haugesund or draw

90%

Haugesund or Sturm Graz

83%

Draw or Sturm Graz

27%

Winning margin

Haugesund wins by 2+

49%

Sturm Graz wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Haugesund 1+ goals

89%

Haugesund 2+ goals

65%

Haugesund 3+ goals

39%

Sturm Graz 1+ goals

49%

Sturm Graz 2+ goals

15%

Sturm Graz 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Haugesund (draw refunded)

88%

Sturm Graz (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haugesund at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Sturm Graz away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.17 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haugesund attack 2.33 + Sturm Graz defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.25

Sturm Graz attack 0.67 + Haugesund defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Haugesund scores more

73%

level

17%

Sturm Graz scores more

10%

Haugesund at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Haugesund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

20'

36'

39'

51'

64'

65'

M. Lema← M. Pink

71'

F. Koch← P. Hosiner

71'

E. Eze← E. Sakic

76'

M. Samuelsen← I. Koné

77'

Martin Samuelsen

90'

Ivan Ljubić

90+4'

E. Ndayisenga← K. Velde

Haugesund4-3-3

Sturm4-2-3-1

16

▼

Hosiner

13

Jantscher

10

Kiteishvi

14

▼

21

30

4

23

5

8

▼

27

12

23

5

2

19

16

8

34

⚽

Krygard

10

⚽

Sandberg

20

▼

Kone

33

▼

Velde

Manager: J. Grindhaug

76'▲M. Samuelsen←▼I. Koné

90+4'▲E. Ndayisenga←▼K. Velde

Haugesund substitutes

32Stople37Kvarven35Ikedi11Samuelsen36Ndayisenga

Manager: N. El Maestro

65'▲M. Lema←▼M. Pink

71'▲F. Koch←▼P. Hosiner

71'▲E. Eze←▼E. Sakic

Sturm Graz substitutes

32Schützenauer35Maresic6Lackner26Koch38Lema18Huspek37Eze

UEFA Europa League: Haugesund 2–0 Sturm Graz

Haugesund beat Sturm Graz 2-0 in UEFA Europa League on July 25, 2019.

Goals: K. Krygård (51'), N. Sandberg (64').

The match was played at Haugesund Stadion in Haugesund.

Haugesund vs Sturm Graz — UEFA Europa League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA Europa League: Haugesund 2–0 Sturm Graz