Haugesund 2–0 Ranheim: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Haugesund

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Ranheim

C. Grindheim 53'

S. Tronstad 41'

11/4/2018

Eliteserien · Round 28Haugesund Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Haugesund47%

×Draw25%

Ranheim28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HaugesundExpected goals in this matchRanheim

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.17

Haugesund

1.57

Ranheim

1.17

Haugesund creates 34% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 22 away

1.42

creates per match

0.91

1.42

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Haugesund

1.42

Ranheim

0.91

allows per match

Haugesund

1.42

Ranheim

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Haugesund+0.00on par

Ranheim+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haugesund ↓

Ranheim →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Haugesund or draw

72%

Haugesund or Ranheim

75%

Draw or Ranheim

53%

Winning margin

Haugesund wins by 2+

24%

Ranheim wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Haugesund 1+ goals

79%

Haugesund 2+ goals

46%

Haugesund 3+ goals

21%

Ranheim 1+ goals

69%

Ranheim 2+ goals

33%

Ranheim 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Haugesund (draw refunded)

62%

Ranheim (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haugesund at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.42 · 106 matches

Ranheim away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.73 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haugesund attack 1.42 + Ranheim defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.57

Ranheim attack 0.91 + Haugesund defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Haugesund scores more

47%

level

25%

Ranheim scores more

28%

Haugesund at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Haugesund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

S. Tronstad

Haugesund · M

8.4

Match Events

33'

Christian Grindheim

41'

S. Tronstad

46'

Ø. Storflor← O. Solbakken

53'

C. Grindheim↳ K. Haraldseid

60'

Bruno Leite← I. Koné

74'

S. Sørløkk← A. Helmersen

75'

Mads Reginiussen

83'

M. Lillebo← K. Løkberg

88'

T. Kallevåg← C. Grindheim

90+2'

T. Svendsen← I. Wadji

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HaugesundRanheim

Overview

34%Possession66%

8Total Shots15

4Corners8

11Fouls15

Shots

8Total Shots15

4On Target3

2Off Target5

2Blocked7

3Inside Box5

5Outside Box10

Passing

34%Possession66%

273Total Passes518

165Accurate Passes401

60%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls15

1Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

5Offsides1