Haugesund 0–1 PSV Eindhoven: Result & Stats

Haugesund

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

PSV Eindhoven

S. Bergwijn 24' (pen)

8/8/2019

UEFA Europa League · 3rd Qualifying RoundHaugesund Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Haugesund53%

×Draw22%

PSV Eindhoven25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HaugesundExpected goals in this matchPSV Eindhoven

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.97

1.28

Haugesund

1.97

PSV Eindhoven

1.28

Haugesund creates 54% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 18 away

2.33

creates per match

1.89

0.67

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Haugesund

2.33

PSV Eindhoven

1.89

allows per match

Haugesund

0.67

PSV Eindhoven

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Haugesund+0.00on par

PSV Eindhoven+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haugesund ↓

PSV Eindhoven →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Haugesund or draw

75%

Haugesund or PSV Eindhoven

78%

Draw or PSV Eindhoven

47%

Winning margin

Haugesund wins by 2+

31%

PSV Eindhoven wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Haugesund 1+ goals

86%

Haugesund 2+ goals

58%

Haugesund 3+ goals

31%

PSV Eindhoven 1+ goals

72%

PSV Eindhoven 2+ goals

37%

PSV Eindhoven 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Haugesund (draw refunded)

68%

PSV Eindhoven (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haugesund at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

PSV Eindhoven away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.61 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haugesund attack 2.33 + PSV Eindhoven defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.97

PSV Eindhoven attack 1.89 + Haugesund defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Haugesund scores more

53%

level

22%

PSV Eindhoven scores more

25%

Haugesund at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Haugesund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

Pablo Rosario

24'

Douglas Bergqvist

24'

S. BergwijnPenalty

35'

Donyell Malen

57'

I. Koné← S. Ibrahim

59'

H. Lozano← Bruma

59'

C. Gakpo← G. Pereiro

69'

Hirving Lozano

71'

C. Grindheim← K. Krygård

74'

J. Nilsen← Bruno Leite

89'

J. Hendrix← É. Gutiérrez

Possession

Shots

Statistics

HaugesundPSV

Overview

51%Possession49%

9Total Shots8

6Corners6

9Fouls20

Shots

9Total Shots8

1On Target4

8Off Target4

Passing

51%Possession49%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

9Fouls20

1Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

1Offsides0

Match Recap: Haugesund vs PSV Eindhoven

PSV Eindhoven beat Haugesund 1-0 in UEFA Europa League on August 8, 2019.

Goals: S. Bergwijn (24' pen).

Haugesund controlled possession (51%) and registered 9 shots to 8.

The match was played at Haugesund Stadion in Haugesund.

Haugesund vs PSV Eindhoven — UEFA Europa League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Statistics

Match Recap: Haugesund vs PSV Eindhoven