Haugesund 3–1 jerv: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Haugesund

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

jerv

M. Samuelsen 90+1'

N. Walstad 55'

B. Njie 3'

F. Schröter 77'

8/7/2022

Eliteserien · Round 17Haugesund Sparebank Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Haugesund56%

×Draw21%

jerv22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HaugesundExpected goals in this matchjerv

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.21

Haugesund

2.04

jerv

1.21

Haugesund creates 69% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 15 away

1.42

creates per match

1.00

1.42

allows per match

2.67

creates per match

Haugesund

1.42

jerv

1.00

allows per match

Haugesund

1.42

jerv

2.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Haugesund+0.00on par

jerv+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haugesund ↓

jerv →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Haugesund or draw

78%

Haugesund or jerv

79%

Draw or jerv

44%

Winning margin

Haugesund wins by 2+

34%

jerv wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Haugesund 1+ goals

87%

Haugesund 2+ goals

60%

Haugesund 3+ goals

33%

jerv 1+ goals

70%

jerv 2+ goals

34%

jerv 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Haugesund (draw refunded)

72%

jerv (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haugesund at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.42 · 106 matches

jerv away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haugesund attack 1.42 + jerv defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.04

jerv attack 1.00 + Haugesund defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Haugesund scores more

56%

level

21%

jerv scores more

22%

Haugesund at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Haugesund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

K. Krygård

Haugesund · M

8.2

Match Events

3'

B. Njie↳ A. Ndour

17'

Alexander Søderlund

35'

Dylan Mboumbouni

36'

E. Sandberg← D. Mboumbouni

41'

Leandro Fernandes

45'

Søren Reese

54'

Erik Brenden

55'

N. Walstad↳ P. Therkildsen

64'

F. Schröter← E. Brenden

64'

I. Mafi← T. Wichne

66'

Iman Mafi

71'

Erik Tobias Sandberg

72'

M. Samuelsen← A. Søderlund

73'

J. Eskesen← M. Sande

76'

Martin Samuelsen

77'

M. Ugland← L. Fernandes

77'

F. Schröter↳ M. Haarup

85'

M. Christensen← C. Zafeiris

88'

T. Pedersen← B. Njie

90+1'

M. Samuelsen↳ A. Ndour

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Haugesundjerv

Overview

48%Possession52%

29Total Shots16

6Corners5

17Fouls15

Shots

29Total Shots16

11On Target3

12Off Target8

6Blocked5

18Inside Box12

11Outside Box4

Passing

48%Possession52%

376Total Passes395

289Accurate Passes302

77%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

2Saves8

Discipline

17Fouls15

3Yellow Cards5

1Offsides1

Match Recap: Haugesund vs jerv

Haugesund beat jerv 3-1 in Eliteserien on August 7, 2022.

Goals: B. Njie (3'), N. Walstad (55'), F. Schröter (77'), M. Samuelsen (90+1').

jerv controlled possession (52%) and registered 16 shots to 29.

The match was played at Haugesund Sparebank Arena in Haugesund.

Haugesund vs jerv — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Haugesund vs jerv