Haugesund 1–0 Brann: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Haugesund

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Brann

I. Wadji 74'

6/24/2021

Eliteserien · Round 9Haugesund Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 31+ matches

Haugesund29%

×Draw24%

Brann46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HaugesundExpected goals in this matchBrann

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.64

Haugesund

1.25

Brann

1.64

Brann creates 31% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 36 away

1.14

creates per match

1.65

1.62

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Haugesund

1.14

Brann

1.65

allows per match

Haugesund

1.62

Brann

1.36

-0.24scores less than expected

finishing

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

Haugesund-0.24scores less

Brann+0.16scores more

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haugesund ↓

Brann →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Haugesund or draw

54%

Haugesund or Brann

76%

Draw or Brann

71%

Winning margin

Haugesund wins by 2+

12%

Brann wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Haugesund 1+ goals

71%

Haugesund 2+ goals

36%

Haugesund 3+ goals

13%

Brann 1+ goals

81%

Brann 2+ goals

49%

Brann 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Haugesund (draw refunded)

39%

Brann (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haugesund at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.62 · 31 matches

Brann away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.36 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haugesund attack 1.14 + Brann defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.25

Brann attack 1.65 + Haugesund defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Haugesund scores more

29%

level

24%

Brann scores more

46%

Brann at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Brann will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

E. Selvik

Haugesund · G

7.5

Match Events

40'

Aune Selland Heggebo

61'

A. Stølås← T. Pedersen

68'

D. Bamba← M. Rasmussen

72'

Bruno Leite← P. Therkildsen

74'

I. Wadji↳ Bruno Leite

76'

F. Delaveris← A. Heggebø

82'

M. Sande← I. Wadji

83'

D. Wolfe← K. Skaanes

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HaugesundBrann

Overview

43%Possession57%

7Total Shots7

2Corners4

9Fouls10

Shots

7Total Shots7

3On Target2

3Off Target2

1Blocked3

6Inside Box6

1Outside Box1

Passing

43%Possession57%

392Total Passes516

299Accurate Passes426

76%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls10

0Yellow Cards1

2Offsides0