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Brann vs Haugesund — Eliteserien 2026

Brann
Brann
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Haugesund
Haugesund
10/18/2025EliteserienEliteserien · Round 25Brann Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Brann51%
×Draw24%
Haugesund25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brann
1.67
Haugesund
1.08

Brann creates 55% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 113 away

creates per match

Brann
1.65
Haugesund
1.08

allows per match

Brann
1.08
Haugesund
1.69

finishing

Brann+0.00on par
Haugesund+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brann ↓

Haugesund →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Brann or draw
75%
Brann or Haugesund
76%
Draw or Haugesund
49%

Winning margin

Brann wins by 2+
27%
Haugesund wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Brann 1+ goals
81%
Brann 2+ goals
50%
Brann 3+ goals
23%
Haugesund 1+ goals
66%
Haugesund 2+ goals
29%
Haugesund 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Brann (draw refunded)
67%
Haugesund (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brann at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.08 · 102 matches

Haugesund away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.69 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brann attack 1.65 + Haugesund defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.67

Haugesund attack 1.08 + Brann defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Brann scores more
51%
level
24%
Haugesund scores more
25%

Brann at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Brann will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Brann vs Haugesund

Brann beat Haugesund 4-1 in Eliteserien on October 18, 2025.

The match was played at Brann Stadion in Bergen.