Haugesund U19 1–2 Sogndal U19: Result & Stats

Haugesund U19

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Sogndal U19

4/5/2023

Nasjonal U19 Champions League · Group Stage - 6Gymnasbane 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Haugesund U1962%

×Draw17%

Sogndal U1921%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Haugesund U19Expected goals in this matchSogndal U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.08

1.82

Haugesund U19

3.08

Sogndal U19

1.82

Haugesund U19 creates 69% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 20 away

2.90

creates per match

1.45

2.19

allows per match

3.25

creates per match

Haugesund U19

2.90

Sogndal U19

1.45

allows per match

Haugesund U19

2.19

Sogndal U19

3.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Haugesund U19+0.00on par

Sogndal U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over86
Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes80
No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haugesund U19 ↓

Sogndal U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–02%

1–14%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–25%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

86%14%3.5

71%29%4.5

52%48%

Double chance

Haugesund U19 or draw

79%

Haugesund U19 or Sogndal U19

83%

Draw or Sogndal U19

38%

Winning margin

Haugesund U19 wins by 2+

43%

Sogndal U19 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Haugesund U19 1+ goals

95%

Haugesund U19 2+ goals

81%

Haugesund U19 3+ goals

58%

Sogndal U19 1+ goals

84%

Sogndal U19 2+ goals

54%

Sogndal U19 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Haugesund U19 (draw refunded)

74%

Sogndal U19 (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

75%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haugesund U19 at home — creates 2.90, concedes 2.19 · 21 matches

Sogndal U19 away — creates 1.45, concedes 3.25 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haugesund U19 attack 2.90 + Sogndal U19 defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 3.08

Sogndal U19 attack 1.45 + Haugesund U19 defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Haugesund U19 scores more

62%

level

17%

Sogndal U19 scores more

21%

Haugesund U19 at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Haugesund U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff