Haugesund U19 3–0 Brann U19: Result & Stats

Haugesund U19

FT

3 – 0

Brann U19

2/23/2023

Nasjonal U19 Champions League · Group Stage - 2Karmøy Storhall

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Haugesund U1947%

×Draw19%

Brann U1935%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Haugesund U19Expected goals in this matchBrann U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.62

2.26

Haugesund U19

2.62

Brann U19

2.26

Haugesund U19 creates 16% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 24 away

2.90

creates per match

2.33

2.19

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Haugesund U19

2.90

Brann U19

2.33

allows per match

Haugesund U19

2.19

Brann U19

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Haugesund U19+0.00on par

Brann U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over86
Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes83
No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haugesund U19 ↓

Brann U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–25%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–26%

3–34%

3–43%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–24%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

86%14%3.5

71%29%4.5

53%47%

Double chance

Haugesund U19 or draw

65%

Haugesund U19 or Brann U19

81%

Draw or Brann U19

53%

Winning margin

Haugesund U19 wins by 2+

29%

Brann U19 wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Haugesund U19 1+ goals

93%

Haugesund U19 2+ goals

73%

Haugesund U19 3+ goals

48%

Brann U19 1+ goals

89%

Brann U19 2+ goals

66%

Brann U19 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

Haugesund U19 (draw refunded)

57%

Brann U19 (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

78%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haugesund U19 at home — creates 2.90, concedes 2.19 · 21 matches

Brann U19 away — creates 2.33, concedes 2.33 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haugesund U19 attack 2.90 + Brann U19 defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.62

Brann U19 attack 2.33 + Haugesund U19 defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 2.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Haugesund U19 scores more

47%

level

19%

Brann U19 scores more

35%

Haugesund U19 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Haugesund U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff