Haugesund II 1–0 Frøya: Result & Stats

Haugesund II

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Frøya

M. Alvsaker 83'

4/13/2024

3. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 2Sparebanken Vest Arena Karmøy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Haugesund II50%

×Draw20%

Frøya30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Haugesund IIExpected goals in this matchFrøya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

1.78

Haugesund II

2.33

Frøya

1.78

Haugesund II creates 31% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

2.00

creates per match

1.65

1.92

allows per match

2.65

creates per match

Haugesund II

2.00

Frøya

1.65

allows per match

Haugesund II

1.92

Frøya

2.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Haugesund II+0.00on par

Frøya+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haugesund II ↓

Frøya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Haugesund II or draw

70%

Haugesund II or Frøya

80%

Draw or Frøya

50%

Winning margin

Haugesund II wins by 2+

30%

Frøya wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Haugesund II 1+ goals

90%

Haugesund II 2+ goals

67%

Haugesund II 3+ goals

41%

Frøya 1+ goals

83%

Frøya 2+ goals

53%

Frøya 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Haugesund II (draw refunded)

63%

Frøya (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haugesund II at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.92 · 13 matches

Frøya away — creates 1.65, concedes 2.65 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haugesund II attack 2.00 + Frøya defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 2.33

Frøya attack 1.65 + Haugesund II defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Haugesund II scores more

50%

level

20%

Frøya scores more

30%

Haugesund II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Haugesund II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

83'

M. Alvsaker

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff