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Hattiesburg vs Little Rock Rangers — USL League Two 2018

Hattiesburg
Hattiesburg
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Little Rock Rangers
Little Rock Rangers
7/14/2024USL League TwoUSL League Two · Southern Conference - 18Tatum Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Hattiesburg31%
×Draw25%
Little Rock Rangers44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hattiesburg
1.27
Little Rock Rangers
1.54

Little Rock Rangers creates 21% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 39 away

creates per match

Hattiesburg
1.56
Little Rock Rangers
1.69

allows per match

Hattiesburg
1.39
Little Rock Rangers
0.97

finishing

Hattiesburg+0.00on par
Little Rock Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hattiesburg ↓

Little Rock Rangers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Hattiesburg or draw
56%
Hattiesburg or Little Rock Rangers
75%
Draw or Little Rock Rangers
69%

Winning margin

Hattiesburg wins by 2+
13%
Little Rock Rangers wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Hattiesburg 1+ goals
72%
Hattiesburg 2+ goals
36%
Hattiesburg 3+ goals
14%
Little Rock Rangers 1+ goals
79%
Little Rock Rangers 2+ goals
45%
Little Rock Rangers 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Hattiesburg (draw refunded)
42%
Little Rock Rangers (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hattiesburg at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.39 · 18 matches

Little Rock Rangers away — creates 1.69, concedes 0.97 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hattiesburg attack 1.56 + Little Rock Rangers defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.27

Little Rock Rangers attack 1.69 + Hattiesburg defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Hattiesburg scores more
31%
level
25%
Little Rock Rangers scores more
44%

Little Rock Rangers at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Little Rock Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hattiesburg vs Little Rock Rangers

Hattiesburg and Little Rock Rangers drew 1-1 in USL League Two on July 14, 2024.

The match was played at Tatum Park in Hattiesburg, Mississippi.