Hattiesburg 3–2 Blue Goose: Result & Stats

Hattiesburg

FT

3 – 2

Blue Goose

6/16/2024

USL League Two · Southern Conference - 10Tatum Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Hattiesburg74%

×Draw14%

Blue Goose12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HattiesburgExpected goals in this matchBlue Goose

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.20

1.25

Hattiesburg

3.20

Blue Goose

1.25

Hattiesburg creates 156% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 19 away

1.56

creates per match

1.11

1.39

allows per match

4.84

creates per match

Hattiesburg

1.56

Blue Goose

1.11

allows per match

Hattiesburg

1.39

Blue Goose

4.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hattiesburg+0.00on par

Blue Goose+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hattiesburg ↓

Blue Goose →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–15%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–17%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

63%37%4.5

43%57%

Double chance

Hattiesburg or draw

88%

Hattiesburg or Blue Goose

86%

Draw or Blue Goose

26%

Winning margin

Hattiesburg wins by 2+

55%

Blue Goose wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Hattiesburg 1+ goals

96%

Hattiesburg 2+ goals

82%

Hattiesburg 3+ goals

60%

Blue Goose 1+ goals

71%

Blue Goose 2+ goals

36%

Blue Goose 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Hattiesburg (draw refunded)

86%

Blue Goose (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hattiesburg at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.39 · 18 matches

Blue Goose away — creates 1.11, concedes 4.84 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hattiesburg attack 1.56 + Blue Goose defence 4.84 → ÷2 → 3.20

Blue Goose attack 1.11 + Hattiesburg defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Hattiesburg scores more

74%

level

14%

Blue Goose scores more

12%

Hattiesburg at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Hattiesburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff