Hatta SC 2–0 Fursan Hispania: Result & Stats

Hatta SC

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Fursan Hispania

1/6/2023

Division 1 · Round 16Hamdan Bin Rashid Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Hatta SC65%

×Draw20%

Fursan Hispania15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hatta SCExpected goals in this matchFursan Hispania

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

0.92

Hatta SC

2.13

Fursan Hispania

0.92

Hatta SC creates 132% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 16 away

1.83

creates per match

0.81

1.02

allows per match

2.44

creates per match

Hatta SC

1.83

Fursan Hispania

0.81

allows per match

Hatta SC

1.02

Fursan Hispania

2.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hatta SC+0.00on par

Fursan Hispania+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hatta SC ↓

Fursan Hispania →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Hatta SC or draw

85%

Hatta SC or Fursan Hispania

80%

Draw or Fursan Hispania

35%

Winning margin

Hatta SC wins by 2+

41%

Fursan Hispania wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Hatta SC 1+ goals

88%

Hatta SC 2+ goals

63%

Hatta SC 3+ goals

35%

Fursan Hispania 1+ goals

60%

Fursan Hispania 2+ goals

23%

Fursan Hispania 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Hatta SC (draw refunded)

81%

Fursan Hispania (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hatta SC at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.02 · 66 matches

Fursan Hispania away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.44 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hatta SC attack 1.83 + Fursan Hispania defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.13

Fursan Hispania attack 0.81 + Hatta SC defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Hatta SC scores more

65%

level

20%

Fursan Hispania scores more

15%

Hatta SC at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Hatta SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff