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Hatta SC vs Ajman — Presidents Cup 2019

Hatta SC
Hatta SC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Ajman
Ajmanadvanced
2/16/2024Presidents CupPresidents Cup · Round of 16Hamdan Bin Rashid Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Hatta SC41%
×Draw24%
Ajman35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hatta SC
1.58
Ajman
1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 8 away

creates per match

Hatta SC
2.17
Ajman
1.25

allows per match

Hatta SC
1.67
Ajman
1.00

finishing

Hatta SC+0.00on par
Ajman+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hatta SC ↓

Ajman →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Hatta SC or draw
65%
Hatta SC or Ajman
76%
Draw or Ajman
59%

Winning margin

Hatta SC wins by 2+
20%
Ajman wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Hatta SC 1+ goals
79%
Hatta SC 2+ goals
47%
Hatta SC 3+ goals
21%
Ajman 1+ goals
77%
Ajman 2+ goals
43%
Ajman 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Hatta SC (draw refunded)
53%
Ajman (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hatta SC at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

Ajman away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hatta SC attack 2.17 + Ajman defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.58

Ajman attack 1.25 + Hatta SC defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hatta SC scores more
41%
level
24%
Ajman scores more
35%

Hatta SC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hatta SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hatta SC vs Ajman

Ajman beat Hatta SC 1-0 in Presidents Cup on February 16, 2024.

The match was played at Hamdan Bin Rashid Stadium in Hatta.