Hatayspor 0–1 Siirt İl Özel İdaresi: Result & Stats

Hatayspor

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Siirt İl Özel İdaresi

9/26/2019

Türkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundOsmaniye 7 Ocak Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Hatayspor54%

×Draw22%

Siirt İl Özel İdaresi24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HataysporExpected goals in this matchSiirt İl Özel İdaresi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.95

1.23

Hatayspor

1.95

Siirt İl Özel İdaresi

1.23

Hatayspor creates 59% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 8 away

2.27

creates per match

1.38

1.07

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Hatayspor

2.27

Siirt İl Özel İdaresi

1.38

allows per match

Hatayspor

1.07

Siirt İl Özel İdaresi

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hatayspor+0.00on par

Siirt İl Özel İdaresi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hatayspor ↓

Siirt İl Özel İdaresi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Hatayspor or draw

76%

Hatayspor or Siirt İl Özel İdaresi

78%

Draw or Siirt İl Özel İdaresi

46%

Winning margin

Hatayspor wins by 2+

31%

Siirt İl Özel İdaresi wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Hatayspor 1+ goals

86%

Hatayspor 2+ goals

58%

Hatayspor 3+ goals

31%

Siirt İl Özel İdaresi 1+ goals

71%

Siirt İl Özel İdaresi 2+ goals

35%

Siirt İl Özel İdaresi 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Hatayspor (draw refunded)

69%

Siirt İl Özel İdaresi (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hatayspor at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

Siirt İl Özel İdaresi away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hatayspor attack 2.27 + Siirt İl Özel İdaresi defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.95

Siirt İl Özel İdaresi attack 1.38 + Hatayspor defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Hatayspor scores more

54%

level

22%

Siirt İl Özel İdaresi scores more

24%

Hatayspor at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Hatayspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff