Hatayspor 2–0 Sarıyer: Result & Stats

Hatayspor

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sarıyer

C. Massanga 90+1'

C. Strandberg 48'

10/31/2023

Türkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundAtatürk Olimpiyat Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Hatayspor72%

×Draw17%

Sarıyer11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HataysporExpected goals in this matchSarıyer

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.42

0.82

Hatayspor

2.42

Sarıyer

0.82

Hatayspor creates 195% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 7 away

2.27

creates per match

0.57

1.07

allows per match

2.57

creates per match

Hatayspor

2.27

Sarıyer

0.57

allows per match

Hatayspor

1.07

Sarıyer

2.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hatayspor+0.00on par

Sarıyer+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hatayspor ↓

Sarıyer →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Hatayspor or draw

89%

Hatayspor or Sarıyer

83%

Draw or Sarıyer

28%

Winning margin

Hatayspor wins by 2+

50%

Sarıyer wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Hatayspor 1+ goals

91%

Hatayspor 2+ goals

69%

Hatayspor 3+ goals

43%

Sarıyer 1+ goals

56%

Sarıyer 2+ goals

20%

Sarıyer 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Hatayspor (draw refunded)

87%

Sarıyer (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hatayspor at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

Sarıyer away — creates 0.57, concedes 2.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hatayspor attack 2.27 + Sarıyer defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.42

Sarıyer attack 0.57 + Hatayspor defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Hatayspor scores more

72%

level

17%

Sarıyer scores more

11%

Hatayspor at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Hatayspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

B. Çuha← B. Başdaş

48'

C. Strandberg

56'

E. Ataseven← U. Zeybek

56'

C. Menize← C. Doğan

68'

D. Lamkel Zé← A. Hodžić

68'

Joelson Fernandes← F. Dele-Bashiru

68'

S. Dursun← A. Müjde

70'

B. Engül← E. Bekdemir

78'

R. Rivas← C. Strandberg

78'

C. Massanga← G. Sağlam

90'

İ. Demir← Ö. Beyaz

90+1'

C. Massanga

Statistics

HataysporSarıyer

Overview

4Corners2

Discipline

1Yellow Cards2