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Hatayspor vs Şanlıurfaspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Hatayspor
Hatayspor
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Şanlıurfaspor
Şanlıurfaspor
11/5/2020Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundAntakya Atatürk Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Hatayspor59%
×Draw20%
Şanlıurfaspor21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hatayspor
2.24
Şanlıurfaspor
1.29

Hatayspor creates 74% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 10 away

creates per match

Hatayspor
2.27
Şanlıurfaspor
1.50

allows per match

Hatayspor
1.07
Şanlıurfaspor
2.20

finishing

Hatayspor+0.00on par
Şanlıurfaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hatayspor ↓

Şanlıurfaspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Hatayspor or draw
79%
Hatayspor or Şanlıurfaspor
80%
Draw or Şanlıurfaspor
41%

Winning margin

Hatayspor wins by 2+
36%
Şanlıurfaspor wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Hatayspor 1+ goals
89%
Hatayspor 2+ goals
65%
Hatayspor 3+ goals
38%
Şanlıurfaspor 1+ goals
72%
Şanlıurfaspor 2+ goals
37%
Şanlıurfaspor 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Hatayspor (draw refunded)
73%
Şanlıurfaspor (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hatayspor at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

Şanlıurfaspor away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.20 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hatayspor attack 2.27 + Şanlıurfaspor defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.24

Şanlıurfaspor attack 1.50 + Hatayspor defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Hatayspor scores more
59%
level
20%
Şanlıurfaspor scores more
21%

Hatayspor at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Hatayspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Hatayspor 2–1 Şanlıurfaspor

Hatayspor beat Şanlıurfaspor 2-1 in Türkiye Kupası on November 5, 2020.

The match was played at Antakya Atatürk Stadı in Hatay.