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Hatayspor vs Manisa F.K. — 1. Lig 2018

Hatayspor
Hatayspor
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Manisa F.K.
Manisa F.K.
1/17/20261. Lig1. Lig · Round 21Mersin Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Hatayspor43%
×Draw26%
Manisa F.K.31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hatayspor
1.45
Manisa F.K.
1.17

Hatayspor creates 24% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 89 away

creates per match

Hatayspor
1.43
Manisa F.K.
1.20

allows per match

Hatayspor
1.15
Manisa F.K.
1.47

finishing

Hatayspor+0.00on par
Manisa F.K.+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hatayspor ↓

Manisa F.K. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Hatayspor or draw
69%
Hatayspor or Manisa F.K.
74%
Draw or Manisa F.K.
57%

Winning margin

Hatayspor wins by 2+
21%
Manisa F.K. wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Hatayspor 1+ goals
77%
Hatayspor 2+ goals
42%
Hatayspor 3+ goals
18%
Manisa F.K. 1+ goals
69%
Manisa F.K. 2+ goals
33%
Manisa F.K. 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Hatayspor (draw refunded)
59%
Manisa F.K. (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hatayspor at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.15 · 54 matches

Manisa F.K. away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.47 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hatayspor attack 1.43 + Manisa F.K. defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.45

Manisa F.K. attack 1.20 + Hatayspor defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Hatayspor scores more
43%
level
26%
Manisa F.K. scores more
31%

Hatayspor at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Hatayspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Lig: Hatayspor 2–2 Manisa F.K.

Hatayspor and Manisa F.K. drew 2-2 in 1. Lig on January 17, 2026.

The match was played at Mersin Stadyumu in Mersin.