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Hatayspor vs Iğdır FK — 1. Lig 2018

Hatayspor
Hatayspor
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Iğdır FK
Iğdır FK
2/17/20261. Lig1. Lig · Round 26Mersin Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Hatayspor40%
×Draw26%
Iğdır FK34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hatayspor
1.39
Iğdır FK
1.25

Hatayspor creates 11% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 38 away

creates per match

Hatayspor
1.43
Iğdır FK
1.34

allows per match

Hatayspor
1.15
Iğdır FK
1.34

finishing

Hatayspor+0.00on par
Iğdır FK+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hatayspor ↓

Iğdır FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Hatayspor or draw
66%
Hatayspor or Iğdır FK
74%
Draw or Iğdır FK
60%

Winning margin

Hatayspor wins by 2+
19%
Iğdır FK wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Hatayspor 1+ goals
75%
Hatayspor 2+ goals
40%
Hatayspor 3+ goals
16%
Iğdır FK 1+ goals
71%
Iğdır FK 2+ goals
36%
Iğdır FK 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Hatayspor (draw refunded)
54%
Iğdır FK (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hatayspor at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.15 · 54 matches

Iğdır FK away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.34 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hatayspor attack 1.43 + Iğdır FK defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.39

Iğdır FK attack 1.34 + Hatayspor defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hatayspor scores more
40%
level
26%
Iğdır FK scores more
34%

Hatayspor at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hatayspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Lig: Hatayspor 0–2 Iğdır FK

Iğdır FK beat Hatayspor 2-0 in 1. Lig on February 17, 2026.

The match was played at Mersin Stadyumu in Mersin.