Hatayspor 2–0 Gençlerbirliği S.K.: Result & Stats

Hatayspor

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Gençlerbirliği S.K.

12/20/2018

Türkiye Kupası · 5th RoundAntakya Atatürk Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Hatayspor35%

×Draw24%

Gençlerbirliği S.K.41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HataysporExpected goals in this matchGençlerbirliği S.K.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.66

Hatayspor

1.51

Gençlerbirliği S.K.

1.66

Gençlerbirliği S.K. creates 10% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 8 away

2.27

creates per match

2.25

1.07

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Hatayspor

2.27

Gençlerbirliği S.K.

2.25

allows per match

Hatayspor

1.07

Gençlerbirliği S.K.

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hatayspor+0.00on par

Gençlerbirliği S.K.+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hatayspor ↓

Gençlerbirliği S.K. →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Hatayspor or draw

59%

Hatayspor or Gençlerbirliği S.K.

76%

Draw or Gençlerbirliği S.K.

65%

Winning margin

Hatayspor wins by 2+

17%

Gençlerbirliği S.K. wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Hatayspor 1+ goals

78%

Hatayspor 2+ goals

44%

Hatayspor 3+ goals

19%

Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1+ goals

81%

Gençlerbirliği S.K. 2+ goals

49%

Gençlerbirliği S.K. 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Hatayspor (draw refunded)

46%

Gençlerbirliği S.K. (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hatayspor at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

Gençlerbirliği S.K. away — creates 2.25, concedes 0.75 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hatayspor attack 2.27 + Gençlerbirliği S.K. defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.51

Gençlerbirliği S.K. attack 2.25 + Hatayspor defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hatayspor scores more

35%

level

24%

Gençlerbirliği S.K. scores more

41%

Gençlerbirliği S.K. at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Gençlerbirliği S.K. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff