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Hatayspor vs Eyüpspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Hatayspor
Hatayspor
Pens
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Eyüpspor
Eyüpspor
12/1/2021Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 4th RoundYeni Hatay Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Hatayspor61%
×Draw19%
Eyüpspor19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hatayspor
2.35
Eyüpspor
1.25

Hatayspor creates 88% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 7 away

creates per match

Hatayspor
2.27
Eyüpspor
1.43

allows per match

Hatayspor
1.07
Eyüpspor
2.43

finishing

Hatayspor+0.00on par
Eyüpspor+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hatayspor ↓

Eyüpspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Hatayspor or draw
81%
Hatayspor or Eyüpspor
81%
Draw or Eyüpspor
39%

Winning margin

Hatayspor wins by 2+
39%
Eyüpspor wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Hatayspor 1+ goals
90%
Hatayspor 2+ goals
68%
Hatayspor 3+ goals
41%
Eyüpspor 1+ goals
71%
Eyüpspor 2+ goals
36%
Eyüpspor 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Hatayspor (draw refunded)
76%
Eyüpspor (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hatayspor at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

Eyüpspor away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hatayspor attack 2.27 + Eyüpspor defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.35

Eyüpspor attack 1.43 + Hatayspor defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Hatayspor scores more
61%
level
19%
Eyüpspor scores more
19%

Hatayspor at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Hatayspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hatayspor vs Eyüpspor

Hatayspor and Eyüpspor drew 1-1 in Türkiye Kupası on December 1, 2021.

The match was played at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu in Hatay.