Hatayspor 0–5 Esenler Erokspor: Result & Stats

Hatayspor

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 1

Esenler Erokspor

A. Karaman 90'

M. Faye 59', 50'

G. Kanga 53' (pen)

O. Ulas 12'

2/7/2026

1. Lig · Round 24Mersin Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Hatayspor34%

×Draw26%

Esenler Erokspor40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HataysporExpected goals in this matchEsenler Erokspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.43

Hatayspor

1.30

Esenler Erokspor

1.43

Esenler Erokspor creates 10% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 38 away

1.43

creates per match

1.71

1.15

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Hatayspor

1.43

Esenler Erokspor

1.71

allows per match

Hatayspor

1.15

Esenler Erokspor

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hatayspor+0.00on par

Esenler Erokspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hatayspor ↓

Esenler Erokspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Hatayspor or draw

60%

Hatayspor or Esenler Erokspor

74%

Draw or Esenler Erokspor

66%

Winning margin

Hatayspor wins by 2+

15%

Esenler Erokspor wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Hatayspor 1+ goals

73%

Hatayspor 2+ goals

37%

Hatayspor 3+ goals

14%

Esenler Erokspor 1+ goals

76%

Esenler Erokspor 2+ goals

42%

Esenler Erokspor 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Hatayspor (draw refunded)

46%

Esenler Erokspor (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hatayspor at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.15 · 54 matches

Esenler Erokspor away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.18 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hatayspor attack 1.43 + Esenler Erokspor defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.30

Esenler Erokspor attack 1.71 + Hatayspor defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hatayspor scores more

34%

level

26%

Esenler Erokspor scores more

40%

Esenler Erokspor at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Esenler Erokspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

M. Faye

Esenler Erokspor · M

8.9

Match Events

12'

O. Ulas↳ E. Alic

36'

Ömer Faruk Beyaz

46'

D. Aksoy← U. Durmushan

50'

M. Faye↳ Amilton

53'

G. KangaPenalty

56'

S. Gazanfer← A. Yildiz

56'

S. Osman← E. Aydemir

56'

R. Niyaz← O. Beyaz

57'

Y. Azrak← P. Ating

59'

M. Faye↳ E. Alic

63'

D. Cavare← F. Nzaba

63'

B. Lus← M. Faye

68'

Deniz Aksoy

69'

R. Chaadaev← C. Yilmaz

73'

A. Karaman← M. Okyar

73'

E. Korkmaz← H. Bilazer

90'

A. Karaman

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HataysporEsenler

Overview

28%Possession72%

5Total Shots13

0.56Expected Goals (xG)2.29

1Corners7

15Fouls10

Shots

5Total Shots13

0On Target7

3Off Target2

2Blocked4

3Inside Box11

2Outside Box2

Passing

28%Possession72%

252Total Passes666

189Accurate Passes597

75%Pass Accuracy90%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

Discipline

15Fouls10

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1