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Hässleholms IF vs Eskilsminne — Svenska Cupen 2019

Hässleholms IF
Hässleholms IF
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Eskilsminne
Eskilsminne
7/2/2022Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · 1st RoundÖsterås IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Hässleholms IF18%
×Draw20%
Eskilsminne63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hässleholms IF
1.10
Eskilsminne
2.23

Eskilsminne creates 103% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

creates per match

Hässleholms IF
1.20
Eskilsminne
1.25

allows per match

Hässleholms IF
3.20
Eskilsminne
1.00

finishing

Hässleholms IF+0.00on par
Eskilsminne+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hässleholms IF ↓

Eskilsminne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–29%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Hässleholms IF or draw
37%
Hässleholms IF or Eskilsminne
80%
Draw or Eskilsminne
82%

Winning margin

Hässleholms IF wins by 2+
6%
Eskilsminne wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

Hässleholms IF 1+ goals
67%
Hässleholms IF 2+ goals
30%
Hässleholms IF 3+ goals
10%
Eskilsminne 1+ goals
89%
Eskilsminne 2+ goals
65%
Eskilsminne 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Hässleholms IF (draw refunded)
22%
Eskilsminne (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hässleholms IF at home — creates 1.20, concedes 3.20 · 5 matches

Eskilsminne away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hässleholms IF attack 1.20 + Eskilsminne defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

Eskilsminne attack 1.25 + Hässleholms IF defence 3.20 → ÷2 → 2.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Hässleholms IF scores more
18%
level
20%
Eskilsminne scores more
63%

Eskilsminne at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Eskilsminne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Svenska Cupen: Hässleholms IF 1–0 Eskilsminne

Hässleholms IF beat Eskilsminne 1-0 in Svenska Cupen on July 2, 2022.

The match was played at Österås IP in Hässleholm.