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Hässleholms IF vs Asarum — Division 2 - Södra Götaland 2019

Hässleholms IF
Hässleholms IF
FT
6 – 1
HT: 4 – 1
Asarum
Asarum
10/15/2022Division 2 - Södra GötalandDivision 2 - Södra Götaland · Södra Götaland - 26Österås IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Hässleholms IF57%
×Draw21%
Asarum22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hässleholms IF
2.13
Asarum
1.25

Hässleholms IF creates 70% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 47 away

creates per match

Hässleholms IF
2.10
Asarum
1.51

allows per match

Hässleholms IF
1.00
Asarum
2.17

finishing

Hässleholms IF+0.00on par
Asarum+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hässleholms IF ↓

Asarum →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Hässleholms IF or draw
78%
Hässleholms IF or Asarum
79%
Draw or Asarum
43%

Winning margin

Hässleholms IF wins by 2+
35%
Asarum wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Hässleholms IF 1+ goals
88%
Hässleholms IF 2+ goals
63%
Hässleholms IF 3+ goals
35%
Asarum 1+ goals
71%
Asarum 2+ goals
36%
Asarum 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Hässleholms IF (draw refunded)
72%
Asarum (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hässleholms IF at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.00 · 73 matches

Asarum away — creates 1.51, concedes 2.17 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hässleholms IF attack 2.10 + Asarum defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.13

Asarum attack 1.51 + Hässleholms IF defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Hässleholms IF scores more
57%
level
21%
Asarum scores more
22%

Hässleholms IF at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Hässleholms IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hässleholms IF vs Asarum

Hässleholms IF beat Asarum 6-1 in Division 2 - Södra Götaland on October 15, 2022.

The match was played at Österås IP in Hässleholm.