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Hassia Bingen vs TuS Koblenz — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Hassia Bingen
Hassia Bingen
CANC
14:30
TuS Koblenz
TuS Koblenz
11/7/2020Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 11Stadion am Hessenhaus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Hassia Bingen30%
×Draw22%
TuS Koblenz48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hassia Bingen
1.45
TuS Koblenz
1.90

TuS Koblenz creates 31% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 60 away

creates per match

Hassia Bingen
1.56
TuS Koblenz
1.85

allows per match

Hassia Bingen
1.94
TuS Koblenz
1.33

finishing

Hassia Bingen+0.00on par
TuS Koblenz+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hassia Bingen ↓

TuS Koblenz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Hassia Bingen or draw
52%
Hassia Bingen or TuS Koblenz
78%
Draw or TuS Koblenz
70%

Winning margin

Hassia Bingen wins by 2+
13%
TuS Koblenz wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Hassia Bingen 1+ goals
77%
Hassia Bingen 2+ goals
42%
Hassia Bingen 3+ goals
18%
TuS Koblenz 1+ goals
85%
TuS Koblenz 2+ goals
56%
TuS Koblenz 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Hassia Bingen (draw refunded)
38%
TuS Koblenz (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hassia Bingen at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.94 · 16 matches

TuS Koblenz away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.33 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hassia Bingen attack 1.56 + TuS Koblenz defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.45

TuS Koblenz attack 1.85 + Hassia Bingen defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Hassia Bingen scores more
30%
level
22%
TuS Koblenz scores more
48%

TuS Koblenz at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "TuS Koblenz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hassia Bingen vs TuS Koblenz — Match Preview

Hassia Bingen face TuS Koblenz on November 7, 2020 in this Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Hassia Bingen host TuS Koblenz at Stadion am Hessenhaus.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.