Hassia Bingen 3–0 FV Engers 07: Result & Stats

Hassia Bingen

FT

3 – 0

FV Engers 07

10/17/2020

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 8Stadion am Hessenhaus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Hassia Bingen33%

×Draw22%

FV Engers 0745%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hassia BingenExpected goals in this matchFV Engers 07

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.95

Hassia Bingen

1.64

FV Engers 07

1.95

FV Engers 07 creates 19% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 78 away

1.56

creates per match

1.96

1.94

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Hassia Bingen

1.56

FV Engers 07

1.96

allows per match

Hassia Bingen

1.94

FV Engers 07

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hassia Bingen+0.00on par

FV Engers 07+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hassia Bingen ↓

FV Engers 07 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Hassia Bingen or draw

55%

Hassia Bingen or FV Engers 07

78%

Draw or FV Engers 07

67%

Winning margin

Hassia Bingen wins by 2+

16%

FV Engers 07 wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Hassia Bingen 1+ goals

81%

Hassia Bingen 2+ goals

49%

Hassia Bingen 3+ goals

23%

FV Engers 07 1+ goals

86%

FV Engers 07 2+ goals

58%

FV Engers 07 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Hassia Bingen (draw refunded)

42%

FV Engers 07 (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hassia Bingen at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.94 · 16 matches

FV Engers 07 away — creates 1.96, concedes 1.71 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hassia Bingen attack 1.56 + FV Engers 07 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.64

FV Engers 07 attack 1.96 + Hassia Bingen defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Hassia Bingen scores more

33%

level

22%

FV Engers 07 scores more

45%

FV Engers 07 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "FV Engers 07 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff