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Hassania Agadir vs Wydad AC — Botola Pro 2025

Hassania Agadir
Hassania Agadir
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Wydad AC
Wydad AC
10/5/2024Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 5Stade d'Agadir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 120+ matches

Hassania Agadir33%
×Draw29%
Wydad AC38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hassania Agadir
1.05
Wydad AC
1.16

Wydad AC creates 10% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 120 away

creates per match

Hassania Agadir
1.15
Wydad AC
1.32

allows per match

Hassania Agadir
1.00
Wydad AC
0.96

finishing

Hassania Agadir+0.00on par
Wydad AC+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hassania Agadir ↓

Wydad AC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Hassania Agadir or draw
62%
Hassania Agadir or Wydad AC
71%
Draw or Wydad AC
67%

Winning margin

Hassania Agadir wins by 2+
13%
Wydad AC wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Hassania Agadir 1+ goals
65%
Hassania Agadir 2+ goals
28%
Hassania Agadir 3+ goals
9%
Wydad AC 1+ goals
69%
Wydad AC 2+ goals
32%
Wydad AC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Hassania Agadir (draw refunded)
46%
Wydad AC (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hassania Agadir at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.00 · 121 matches

Wydad AC away — creates 1.32, concedes 0.96 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hassania Agadir attack 1.15 + Wydad AC defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.05

Wydad AC attack 1.32 + Hassania Agadir defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Hassania Agadir scores more
33%
level
29%
Wydad AC scores more
38%

Wydad AC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Wydad AC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola Pro: Hassania Agadir 1–1 Wydad AC

Hassania Agadir and Wydad AC drew 1-1 in Botola Pro on October 5, 2024.

The match was played at Stade d'Agadir in Agadir.