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Hassania Agadir vs UTS Rabat — Botola Pro 2025

Hassania Agadir
Hassania Agadir
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
UTS Rabat
UTS Rabat
10/22/2024Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 7Stade Municipal de Berrechid

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Hassania Agadir41%
×Draw28%
UTS Rabat31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hassania Agadir
1.25
UTS Rabat
1.04

Hassania Agadir creates 20% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 61 away

creates per match

Hassania Agadir
1.15
UTS Rabat
1.07

allows per match

Hassania Agadir
1.00
UTS Rabat
1.36

finishing

Hassania Agadir+0.00on par
UTS Rabat+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hassania Agadir ↓

UTS Rabat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Hassania Agadir or draw
69%
Hassania Agadir or UTS Rabat
72%
Draw or UTS Rabat
59%

Winning margin

Hassania Agadir wins by 2+
18%
UTS Rabat wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Hassania Agadir 1+ goals
71%
Hassania Agadir 2+ goals
36%
Hassania Agadir 3+ goals
13%
UTS Rabat 1+ goals
65%
UTS Rabat 2+ goals
28%
UTS Rabat 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Hassania Agadir (draw refunded)
57%
UTS Rabat (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hassania Agadir at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.00 · 121 matches

UTS Rabat away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.36 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hassania Agadir attack 1.15 + UTS Rabat defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.25

UTS Rabat attack 1.07 + Hassania Agadir defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hassania Agadir scores more
41%
level
28%
UTS Rabat scores more
31%

Hassania Agadir at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hassania Agadir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola Pro: Hassania Agadir 2–1 UTS Rabat

Hassania Agadir beat UTS Rabat 2-1 in Botola Pro on October 22, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Berrechid in Berrechid.