Hassania Agadir 2–4 Raja Casablanca: Result & Stats

Hassania Agadir

FT

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 3

Raja Casablanca

H. El Belghity 88'

A. Boukhanfer 7'

N. Zerhouni 72'

A. Ennaffati 45+2'

A. Beye 26' (OG)

E. Maouhoub 11'

5/11/2024

Cup · Quarter-finalsStade d'Agadir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Hassania Agadir30%

×Draw24%

Raja Casablanca46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hassania AgadirExpected goals in this matchRaja Casablanca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.65

Hassania Agadir

1.30

Raja Casablanca

1.65

Raja Casablanca creates 27% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

1.75

creates per match

1.29

2.00

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Hassania Agadir

1.75

Raja Casablanca

1.29

allows per match

Hassania Agadir

2.00

Raja Casablanca

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hassania Agadir+0.00on par

Raja Casablanca+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hassania Agadir ↓

Raja Casablanca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Hassania Agadir or draw

54%

Hassania Agadir or Raja Casablanca

76%

Draw or Raja Casablanca

70%

Winning margin

Hassania Agadir wins by 2+

13%

Raja Casablanca wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Hassania Agadir 1+ goals

73%

Hassania Agadir 2+ goals

37%

Hassania Agadir 3+ goals

14%

Raja Casablanca 1+ goals

81%

Raja Casablanca 2+ goals

49%

Raja Casablanca 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Hassania Agadir (draw refunded)

40%

Raja Casablanca (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hassania Agadir at home — creates 1.75, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Raja Casablanca away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hassania Agadir attack 1.75 + Raja Casablanca defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.30

Raja Casablanca attack 1.29 + Hassania Agadir defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Hassania Agadir scores more

30%

level

24%

Raja Casablanca scores more

46%

Raja Casablanca at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Raja Casablanca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

A. Boukhanfer

11'

E. Maouhoub

26'

A. BeyeOwn goal

45+2'

A. Ennaffati

72'

N. Zerhouni

88'

H. El Belghity

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff