Hassania Agadir 1–1 Mouloudia Oujda: Result & Stats

Hassania Agadir

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Mouloudia Oujda

F. Ben Choug 62'

C. Faidi 29'

10/2/2022

Botola Pro · Round 4Stade d'Agadir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Hassania Agadir42%

×Draw29%

Mouloudia Oujda29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hassania AgadirExpected goals in this matchMouloudia Oujda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.97

Hassania Agadir

1.21

Mouloudia Oujda

0.97

Hassania Agadir creates 25% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 89 away

1.15

creates per match

0.93

1.01

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Hassania Agadir

1.15

Mouloudia Oujda

0.93

allows per match

Hassania Agadir

1.01

Mouloudia Oujda

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hassania Agadir+0.00on par

Mouloudia Oujda+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hassania Agadir ↓

Mouloudia Oujda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Hassania Agadir or draw

71%

Hassania Agadir or Mouloudia Oujda

71%

Draw or Mouloudia Oujda

58%

Winning margin

Hassania Agadir wins by 2+

18%

Mouloudia Oujda wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Hassania Agadir 1+ goals

70%

Hassania Agadir 2+ goals

34%

Hassania Agadir 3+ goals

12%

Mouloudia Oujda 1+ goals

62%

Mouloudia Oujda 2+ goals

25%

Mouloudia Oujda 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Hassania Agadir (draw refunded)

59%

Mouloudia Oujda (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hassania Agadir at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.01 · 119 matches

Mouloudia Oujda away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.28 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hassania Agadir attack 1.15 + Mouloudia Oujda defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.21

Mouloudia Oujda attack 0.93 + Hassania Agadir defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Hassania Agadir scores more

42%

level

29%

Mouloudia Oujda scores more

29%

Hassania Agadir at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Hassania Agadir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

29'

62'

64'

64'

S. Alami← J. Tachtach

64'

A. Azakane← M. Cheikhi

66'

A. Amri← M. Maftah

67'

Y. Wakili

69'

K. El Oualadi← K. Benarif

70'

E. Brija← M. Attouchi

74'

M. Rharsalla← Joyce Katulondi

83'

A. Haroun← Y. Wakili

83'

A. Souane← C. Faidi

84'

M. Bakhkhach← F. Ben Choug

87'

A. Haroun

88'

A. Amri

90'

Y. El Behairy

90+4'

Y. Jarici

90+4'

P. V. Bassene

Hassania

Mouloudia

1

▼

Maftah

26

Jarici

6

Nouader

19

▼

Attouchi

15

Serbout

13

▼

Wakili

20

▼

16

21

28

30

⚽

▼

Faidi

65

Majhad

55

Marzak

97

▼

Cheikhi

15

Jaaouani

25

⚽

▼

Choug

8

▼

Souissi

22

▼

5

33

11

29

▼

Katulondi

Manager: A. Sektioui

64'▲H. Afsal←▼H. Souissi

64'▲S. Alami←▼J. Tachtach

64'▲A. Azakane←▼M. Cheikhi

74'▲M. Rharsalla←▼Joyce Katulondi

84'▲M. Bakhkhach←▼F. Ben Choug

Hassania Agadir substitutes

2Afsal18Alami26Azakane77Rharsalla27Bakhkhach1Jourbaoui6Kalai

Manager: M. Jaouani

66'▲A. Amri←▼M. Maftah

69'▲K. El Oualadi←▼K. Benarif

70'▲E. Brija←▼M. Attouchi

83'▲A. Haroun←▼Y. Wakili

83'▲A. Souane←▼C. Faidi

Mouloudia Oujda substitutes

31Amri25Oualadi24Brija9Haroun14Souane4Merah8Buihamghet11Lougmani18Benhalima