Hassania Agadir vs Mouloudia Oujda — Botola Pro 2025
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 86+ matches
Hassania Agadir42%
Mouloudia Oujda30%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Hassania Agadir creates 24% more chances
Season form · 116 home / 86 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under62
- Over38
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No56
- Yes44
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Hassania Agadir ↓
Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Hassania Agadir at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.02 · 116 matches
Mouloudia Oujda away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.28 · 86 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Hassania Agadir attack 1.16 + Mouloudia Oujda defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.22
Mouloudia Oujda attack 0.95 + Hassania Agadir defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.98
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 42%?"
Hassania Agadir at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 42% does not mean "Hassania Agadir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
Wydad AC
Raja CasablancaHassania Agadir
Olympique Safi
Ittihad Tanger
Youssoufia Berrechid
Difaa EL Jadida
Renaissance Berkane
FUS Rabat
Rapide Oued ZEMMouloudia Oujda
Moghreb Tetouan
FAR Rabat
Olympique Khouribga
Kawkab Marrakech
Chabab RIF HoceimaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Hassania Agadir host Mouloudia Oujda on Saturday, 1 May 2021 at 22:00. The match is part of the Botola Pro 2025/2026 season.
Hassania Agadir 1 – 0 Mouloudia Oujda
Hassania Agadir beat Mouloudia Oujda 1-0 in Botola Pro on May 1, 2021.
Goals: Y. Alfahli (45+1' pen).
The match was played at Stade d'Agadir in Agadir.