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Hassania Agadir vs Maghreb Fès — Botola Pro 2025

Hassania Agadir
Hassania Agadir
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Maghreb Fès
Maghreb Fès
12/29/2023Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 13Stade d'Agadir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Hassania Agadir37%
×Draw30%
Maghreb Fès33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hassania Agadir
1.08
Maghreb Fès
0.99

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 121 home / 90 away

creates per match

Hassania Agadir
1.15
Maghreb Fès
0.99

allows per match

Hassania Agadir
1.00
Maghreb Fès
1.01

finishing

Hassania Agadir+0.00on par
Maghreb Fès+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hassania Agadir ↓

Maghreb Fès →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Hassania Agadir or draw
67%
Hassania Agadir or Maghreb Fès
70%
Draw or Maghreb Fès
63%

Winning margin

Hassania Agadir wins by 2+
15%
Maghreb Fès wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Hassania Agadir 1+ goals
66%
Hassania Agadir 2+ goals
29%
Hassania Agadir 3+ goals
10%
Maghreb Fès 1+ goals
63%
Maghreb Fès 2+ goals
26%
Maghreb Fès 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Hassania Agadir (draw refunded)
53%
Maghreb Fès (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hassania Agadir at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.00 · 121 matches

Maghreb Fès away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.01 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hassania Agadir attack 1.15 + Maghreb Fès defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.08

Maghreb Fès attack 0.99 + Hassania Agadir defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Hassania Agadir scores more
37%
level
30%
Maghreb Fès scores more
33%

Hassania Agadir at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Hassania Agadir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hassania Agadir vs Maghreb Fès

Hassania Agadir beat Maghreb Fès 2-1 in Botola Pro on December 29, 2023.

The match was played at Stade d'Agadir in Agadir.