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Hassania Agadir vs FAR Rabat — Botola Pro 2025

Hassania Agadir
Hassania Agadir
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
FAR Rabat
FAR Rabat
5/11/2025Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 30Stade Municipal de Berrechid

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 120+ matches

Hassania Agadir31%
×Draw29%
FAR Rabat40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hassania Agadir
1.03
FAR Rabat
1.20

FAR Rabat creates 17% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 120 away

creates per match

Hassania Agadir
1.15
FAR Rabat
1.40

allows per match

Hassania Agadir
1.00
FAR Rabat
0.92

finishing

Hassania Agadir+0.00on par
FAR Rabat+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hassania Agadir ↓

FAR Rabat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Hassania Agadir or draw
60%
Hassania Agadir or FAR Rabat
71%
Draw or FAR Rabat
69%

Winning margin

Hassania Agadir wins by 2+
12%
FAR Rabat wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Hassania Agadir 1+ goals
64%
Hassania Agadir 2+ goals
28%
Hassania Agadir 3+ goals
9%
FAR Rabat 1+ goals
70%
FAR Rabat 2+ goals
34%
FAR Rabat 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Hassania Agadir (draw refunded)
44%
FAR Rabat (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hassania Agadir at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.00 · 121 matches

FAR Rabat away — creates 1.40, concedes 0.92 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hassania Agadir attack 1.15 + FAR Rabat defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.03

FAR Rabat attack 1.40 + Hassania Agadir defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hassania Agadir scores more
31%
level
29%
FAR Rabat scores more
40%

FAR Rabat at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "FAR Rabat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola Pro: Hassania Agadir 0–3 FAR Rabat

FAR Rabat beat Hassania Agadir 3-0 in Botola Pro on May 11, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Berrechid in Berrechid.