Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Hassania Agadir vs Difaa EL Jadida — Botola Pro 2025

Hassania Agadir
Hassania Agadir
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Difaa EL Jadida
Difaa EL Jadida
B. Bello Ilou 82'
A. Ennakouss 25' (OG)
A. Ziani 22'
10/5/2025Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 4Stade Adrar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Hassania Agadir44%
×Draw28%
Difaa EL Jadida28%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hassania Agadir
1.34
Difaa EL Jadida
1.01

Hassania Agadir creates 33% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 104 away

creates per match

Hassania Agadir
1.16
Difaa EL Jadida
1.01

allows per match

Hassania Agadir
1.01
Difaa EL Jadida
1.53

finishing

Hassania Agadir+0.00on par
Difaa EL Jadida+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hassania Agadir ↓

Difaa EL Jadida →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Hassania Agadir or draw
72%
Hassania Agadir or Difaa EL Jadida
72%
Draw or Difaa EL Jadida
56%

Winning margin

Hassania Agadir wins by 2+
21%
Difaa EL Jadida wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Hassania Agadir 1+ goals
74%
Hassania Agadir 2+ goals
39%
Hassania Agadir 3+ goals
15%
Difaa EL Jadida 1+ goals
64%
Difaa EL Jadida 2+ goals
27%
Difaa EL Jadida 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Hassania Agadir (draw refunded)
61%
Difaa EL Jadida (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hassania Agadir at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.01 · 117 matches

Difaa EL Jadida away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.53 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hassania Agadir attack 1.16 + Difaa EL Jadida defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.34

Difaa EL Jadida attack 1.01 + Hassania Agadir defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Hassania Agadir scores more
44%
level
28%
Difaa EL Jadida scores more
28%

Hassania Agadir at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Hassania Agadir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'
A. Ziani↳ K. Baba
25'
A. EnnakoussOwn goal
30'
Ayman Tarrazi
43'
Assane Beye
48'
Youssef Michte
49'
Marouane Lemzaouri
62'
B. Bello Ilou← A. Tarrazi
62'
M. Akoumi← R. Kossi
70'
A. Idrissi← Y. Michte
71'
Z. Lamgahez← S. El Amrani
81'
A. Boukhanfer← M. Bakhkhach
81'
A. Y. Amkadmi← A. Plumain
82'
B. Bello Ilou↳ A. Y. Amkadmi
88'
M. Hadhoudi← M. Bentarcha
88'
M. Mouchtanim← S. Abaaziz
88'
M. Hilali← M. El Hacen

Statistics

HassaniaDifaa
Discipline
2Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0

Botola Pro: Hassania Agadir 2–1 Difaa EL Jadida

Hassania Agadir beat Difaa EL Jadida 2-1 in Botola Pro on October 5, 2025.

Goals: A. Ziani (22'), A. Ennakouss (25' o.g.), B. Bello Ilou (82').

The match was played at Stade Adrar in Agadir.