Hassania Agadir 0–1 CR Khemis Zemamra

Hassania Agadir

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

CR Khemis Zemamra

9/21/2024

Botola Pro · Round 3Stade d'Agadir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Hassania Agadir42%

×Draw29%

CR Khemis Zemamra29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hassania AgadirExpected goals in this matchCR Khemis Zemamra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.98

Hassania Agadir

1.25

CR Khemis Zemamra

0.98

Hassania Agadir creates 28% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 74 away

1.15

creates per match

0.97

1.00

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Hassania Agadir

1.15

CR Khemis Zemamra

0.97

allows per match

Hassania Agadir

1.00

CR Khemis Zemamra

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hassania Agadir+0.00on par

CR Khemis Zemamra+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hassania Agadir ↓

CR Khemis Zemamra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Hassania Agadir or draw

71%

Hassania Agadir or CR Khemis Zemamra

71%

Draw or CR Khemis Zemamra

58%

Winning margin

Hassania Agadir wins by 2+

19%

CR Khemis Zemamra wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Hassania Agadir 1+ goals

71%

Hassania Agadir 2+ goals

36%

Hassania Agadir 3+ goals

13%

CR Khemis Zemamra 1+ goals

62%

CR Khemis Zemamra 2+ goals

26%

CR Khemis Zemamra 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Hassania Agadir (draw refunded)

59%

CR Khemis Zemamra (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hassania Agadir at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.00 · 121 matches

CR Khemis Zemamra away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.35 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hassania Agadir attack 1.15 + CR Khemis Zemamra defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.25

CR Khemis Zemamra attack 0.97 + Hassania Agadir defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Hassania Agadir scores more

42%

level

29%

CR Khemis Zemamra scores more

29%

Hassania Agadir at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Hassania Agadir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff