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Hassania Agadir vs Chabab Mohammédia — Botola Pro 2025

Hassania Agadir
Hassania Agadir
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Chabab Mohammédia
Chabab Mohammédia
11/10/2024Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 10Stade Municipal de Berrechid

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Hassania Agadir45%
×Draw30%
Chabab Mohammédia25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hassania Agadir
1.21
Chabab Mohammédia
0.81

Hassania Agadir creates 49% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 75 away

creates per match

Hassania Agadir
1.15
Chabab Mohammédia
0.63

allows per match

Hassania Agadir
1.00
Chabab Mohammédia
1.28

finishing

Hassania Agadir+0.00on par
Chabab Mohammédia+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hassania Agadir ↓

Chabab Mohammédia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Hassania Agadir or draw
75%
Hassania Agadir or Chabab Mohammédia
70%
Draw or Chabab Mohammédia
55%

Winning margin

Hassania Agadir wins by 2+
20%
Chabab Mohammédia wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Hassania Agadir 1+ goals
70%
Hassania Agadir 2+ goals
34%
Hassania Agadir 3+ goals
12%
Chabab Mohammédia 1+ goals
56%
Chabab Mohammédia 2+ goals
19%
Chabab Mohammédia 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Hassania Agadir (draw refunded)
65%
Chabab Mohammédia (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hassania Agadir at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.00 · 121 matches

Chabab Mohammédia away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.28 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hassania Agadir attack 1.15 + Chabab Mohammédia defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.21

Chabab Mohammédia attack 0.63 + Hassania Agadir defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Hassania Agadir scores more
45%
level
30%
Chabab Mohammédia scores more
25%

Hassania Agadir at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Hassania Agadir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hassania Agadir vs Chabab Mohammédia

Hassania Agadir beat Chabab Mohammédia 2-1 in Botola Pro on November 10, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Berrechid in Berrechid.