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Hassania Agadir vs Chabab Ben Guerir — Cup 2020

Hassania Agadir
Hassania Agadiradvanced
FT
2 – 1
Chabab Ben Guerir
Chabab Ben Guerir
1/3/2021CupCup · Round of 32Stade d'Agadir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Hassania Agadir27%
×Draw24%
Chabab Ben Guerir49%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hassania Agadir
1.25
Chabab Ben Guerir
1.75

Chabab Ben Guerir creates 40% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Hassania Agadir
1.75
Chabab Ben Guerir
1.50

allows per match

Hassania Agadir
2.00
Chabab Ben Guerir
0.75

finishing

Hassania Agadir+0.00on par
Chabab Ben Guerir+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hassania Agadir ↓

Chabab Ben Guerir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Hassania Agadir or draw
51%
Hassania Agadir or Chabab Ben Guerir
76%
Draw or Chabab Ben Guerir
73%

Winning margin

Hassania Agadir wins by 2+
11%
Chabab Ben Guerir wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Hassania Agadir 1+ goals
71%
Hassania Agadir 2+ goals
36%
Hassania Agadir 3+ goals
13%
Chabab Ben Guerir 1+ goals
83%
Chabab Ben Guerir 2+ goals
52%
Chabab Ben Guerir 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Hassania Agadir (draw refunded)
36%
Chabab Ben Guerir (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hassania Agadir at home — creates 1.75, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Chabab Ben Guerir away — creates 1.50, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hassania Agadir attack 1.75 + Chabab Ben Guerir defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.25

Chabab Ben Guerir attack 1.50 + Hassania Agadir defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Hassania Agadir scores more
27%
level
24%
Chabab Ben Guerir scores more
49%

Chabab Ben Guerir at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Chabab Ben Guerir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hassania Agadir vs Chabab Ben Guerir

Hassania Agadir beat Chabab Ben Guerir 2-1 in Cup on January 3, 2021.

The match was played at Stade d'Agadir in Agadir.