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Haskovo vs Yambol 1915 — Third League - Southeast 2018

Haskovo
Haskovo
FT
1 – 1
Yambol 1915
Yambol 1915
3/20/2021Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · South-East - 22Stadion Dimitar Kanev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Haskovo47%
×Draw25%
Yambol 191528%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Haskovo
1.58
Yambol 1915
1.16

Haskovo creates 36% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 118 away

creates per match

Haskovo
1.50
Yambol 1915
1.08

allows per match

Haskovo
1.24
Yambol 1915
1.66

finishing

Haskovo+0.00on par
Yambol 1915+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haskovo ↓

Yambol 1915 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Haskovo or draw
72%
Haskovo or Yambol 1915
75%
Draw or Yambol 1915
53%

Winning margin

Haskovo wins by 2+
24%
Yambol 1915 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Haskovo 1+ goals
79%
Haskovo 2+ goals
47%
Haskovo 3+ goals
21%
Yambol 1915 1+ goals
69%
Yambol 1915 2+ goals
32%
Yambol 1915 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Haskovo (draw refunded)
63%
Yambol 1915 (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haskovo at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.24 · 46 matches

Yambol 1915 away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.66 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haskovo attack 1.50 + Yambol 1915 defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.58

Yambol 1915 attack 1.08 + Haskovo defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Haskovo scores more
47%
level
25%
Yambol 1915 scores more
28%

Haskovo at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Haskovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Haskovo vs Yambol 1915

Haskovo and Yambol 1915 drew 1-1 in Third League - Southeast on March 20, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Dimitar Kanev in Haskovo.