Haskovo 4–1 Vereya Stara Zagora: Result & Stats

Haskovo

FT

4 – 1

Vereya Stara Zagora

3/6/2021

Third League - Southeast · South-East - 20Stadion Dimitar Kanev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Haskovo78%

×Draw14%

Vereya Stara Zagora9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HaskovoExpected goals in this matchVereya Stara Zagora

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.90

0.89

Haskovo

2.90

Vereya Stara Zagora

0.89

Haskovo creates 226% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 36 away

1.50

creates per match

0.53

1.24

allows per match

4.31

creates per match

Haskovo

1.50

Vereya Stara Zagora

0.53

allows per match

Haskovo

1.24

Vereya Stara Zagora

4.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Haskovo+0.00on par

Vereya Stara Zagora+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haskovo ↓

Vereya Stara Zagora →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–16%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Haskovo or draw

91%

Haskovo or Vereya Stara Zagora

86%

Draw or Vereya Stara Zagora

22%

Winning margin

Haskovo wins by 2+

58%

Vereya Stara Zagora wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Haskovo 1+ goals

94%

Haskovo 2+ goals

78%

Haskovo 3+ goals

54%

Vereya Stara Zagora 1+ goals

59%

Vereya Stara Zagora 2+ goals

22%

Vereya Stara Zagora 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Haskovo (draw refunded)

90%

Vereya Stara Zagora (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haskovo at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.24 · 46 matches

Vereya Stara Zagora away — creates 0.53, concedes 4.31 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haskovo attack 1.50 + Vereya Stara Zagora defence 4.31 → ÷2 → 2.90

Vereya Stara Zagora attack 0.53 + Haskovo defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Haskovo scores more

78%

level

14%

Vereya Stara Zagora scores more

9%

Haskovo at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Haskovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff