Haskovo 2–2 Svilengrad: Result & Stats

Haskovo

FT

2 – 2

Svilengrad

4/25/2019

Third League - Southeast · Round 28Stadion Dimitar Kanev (Haskovo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Haskovo57%

×Draw23%

Svilengrad20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HaskovoExpected goals in this matchSvilengrad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

0.96

Haskovo

1.81

Svilengrad

0.96

Haskovo creates 89% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 26 away

1.50

creates per match

0.69

1.24

allows per match

2.12

creates per match

Haskovo

1.50

Svilengrad

0.69

allows per match

Haskovo

1.24

Svilengrad

2.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Haskovo+0.00on par

Svilengrad+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haskovo ↓

Svilengrad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Haskovo or draw

80%

Haskovo or Svilengrad

77%

Draw or Svilengrad

43%

Winning margin

Haskovo wins by 2+

33%

Svilengrad wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Haskovo 1+ goals

84%

Haskovo 2+ goals

54%

Haskovo 3+ goals

27%

Svilengrad 1+ goals

62%

Svilengrad 2+ goals

25%

Svilengrad 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Haskovo (draw refunded)

74%

Svilengrad (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haskovo at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.24 · 46 matches

Svilengrad away — creates 0.69, concedes 2.12 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haskovo attack 1.50 + Svilengrad defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.81

Svilengrad attack 0.69 + Haskovo defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Haskovo scores more

57%

level

23%

Svilengrad scores more

20%

Haskovo at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Haskovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff