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Haskovo vs Spartak Plovdiv — Third League - Southeast 2018

Haskovo
Haskovo
FT
0 – 1
Spartak Plovdiv
Spartak Plovdiv
5/22/2021Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · South-East - 33Stadion Dimitar Kanev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Haskovo38%
×Draw25%
Spartak Plovdiv37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Haskovo
1.46
Spartak Plovdiv
1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 46 home / 92 away

creates per match

Haskovo
1.50
Spartak Plovdiv
1.62

allows per match

Haskovo
1.24
Spartak Plovdiv
1.42

finishing

Haskovo+0.00on par
Spartak Plovdiv+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haskovo ↓

Spartak Plovdiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Haskovo or draw
63%
Haskovo or Spartak Plovdiv
75%
Draw or Spartak Plovdiv
62%

Winning margin

Haskovo wins by 2+
18%
Spartak Plovdiv wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Haskovo 1+ goals
77%
Haskovo 2+ goals
43%
Haskovo 3+ goals
18%
Spartak Plovdiv 1+ goals
76%
Spartak Plovdiv 2+ goals
42%
Spartak Plovdiv 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Haskovo (draw refunded)
51%
Spartak Plovdiv (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haskovo at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.24 · 46 matches

Spartak Plovdiv away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.42 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haskovo attack 1.50 + Spartak Plovdiv defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.46

Spartak Plovdiv attack 1.62 + Haskovo defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Haskovo scores more
38%
level
25%
Spartak Plovdiv scores more
37%

Haskovo at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Haskovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Haskovo vs Spartak Plovdiv

Spartak Plovdiv beat Haskovo 1-0 in Third League - Southeast on May 22, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Dimitar Kanev in Haskovo.