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Haskovo vs Levski Karlovo — Third League - Southeast 2018

Haskovo
Haskovo
FT
2 – 1
Levski Karlovo
Levski Karlovo
3/27/2021Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · South-East - 23Stadion Dimitar Kanev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Haskovo54%
×Draw23%
Levski Karlovo23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Haskovo
1.86
Levski Karlovo
1.14

Haskovo creates 63% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 136 away

creates per match

Haskovo
1.50
Levski Karlovo
1.04

allows per match

Haskovo
1.24
Levski Karlovo
2.22

finishing

Haskovo+0.00on par
Levski Karlovo+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haskovo ↓

Levski Karlovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Haskovo or draw
77%
Haskovo or Levski Karlovo
77%
Draw or Levski Karlovo
46%

Winning margin

Haskovo wins by 2+
31%
Levski Karlovo wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Haskovo 1+ goals
84%
Haskovo 2+ goals
55%
Haskovo 3+ goals
28%
Levski Karlovo 1+ goals
68%
Levski Karlovo 2+ goals
32%
Levski Karlovo 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Haskovo (draw refunded)
70%
Levski Karlovo (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haskovo at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.24 · 46 matches

Levski Karlovo away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.22 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haskovo attack 1.50 + Levski Karlovo defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.86

Levski Karlovo attack 1.04 + Haskovo defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Haskovo scores more
54%
level
23%
Levski Karlovo scores more
23%

Haskovo at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Haskovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Haskovo vs Levski Karlovo

Haskovo beat Levski Karlovo 2-1 in Third League - Southeast on March 27, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Dimitar Kanev in Haskovo.