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Haskovo vs Izvor Gorski izvor — Third League - Southeast 2018

Haskovo
Haskovo
FT
1 – 0
Izvor Gorski izvor
Izvor Gorski izvor
10/3/2020Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · South-East - 9Stadion Dimitar Kanev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Haskovo44%
×Draw27%
Izvor Gorski izvor29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Haskovo
1.37
Izvor Gorski izvor
1.06

Haskovo creates 29% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 17 away

creates per match

Haskovo
1.50
Izvor Gorski izvor
0.88

allows per match

Haskovo
1.24
Izvor Gorski izvor
1.24

finishing

Haskovo+0.00on par
Izvor Gorski izvor+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haskovo ↓

Izvor Gorski izvor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Haskovo or draw
71%
Haskovo or Izvor Gorski izvor
73%
Draw or Izvor Gorski izvor
56%

Winning margin

Haskovo wins by 2+
21%
Izvor Gorski izvor wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Haskovo 1+ goals
75%
Haskovo 2+ goals
40%
Haskovo 3+ goals
16%
Izvor Gorski izvor 1+ goals
65%
Izvor Gorski izvor 2+ goals
29%
Izvor Gorski izvor 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Haskovo (draw refunded)
60%
Izvor Gorski izvor (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haskovo at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.24 · 46 matches

Izvor Gorski izvor away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haskovo attack 1.50 + Izvor Gorski izvor defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.37

Izvor Gorski izvor attack 0.88 + Haskovo defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Haskovo scores more
44%
level
27%
Izvor Gorski izvor scores more
29%

Haskovo at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Haskovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Haskovo vs Izvor Gorski izvor

Haskovo beat Izvor Gorski izvor 1-0 in Third League - Southeast on October 3, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Dimitar Kanev in Haskovo.