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Haskovo vs Gigant Saedinenie — Third League - Southeast 2018

Haskovo
Haskovo
FT
0 – 0
Gigant Saedinenie
Gigant Saedinenie
4/7/2021Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · South-East - 25Stadion Dimitar Kanev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Haskovo43%
×Draw26%
Gigant Saedinenie31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Haskovo
1.46
Gigant Saedinenie
1.21

Haskovo creates 21% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 136 away

creates per match

Haskovo
1.50
Gigant Saedinenie
1.17

allows per match

Haskovo
1.24
Gigant Saedinenie
1.42

finishing

Haskovo+0.00on par
Gigant Saedinenie+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haskovo ↓

Gigant Saedinenie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Haskovo or draw
69%
Haskovo or Gigant Saedinenie
74%
Draw or Gigant Saedinenie
57%

Winning margin

Haskovo wins by 2+
21%
Gigant Saedinenie wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Haskovo 1+ goals
77%
Haskovo 2+ goals
43%
Haskovo 3+ goals
18%
Gigant Saedinenie 1+ goals
70%
Gigant Saedinenie 2+ goals
34%
Gigant Saedinenie 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Haskovo (draw refunded)
58%
Gigant Saedinenie (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haskovo at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.24 · 46 matches

Gigant Saedinenie away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.42 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haskovo attack 1.50 + Gigant Saedinenie defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.46

Gigant Saedinenie attack 1.17 + Haskovo defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Haskovo scores more
43%
level
26%
Gigant Saedinenie scores more
31%

Haskovo at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Haskovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Haskovo 0–0 Gigant Saedinenie

Haskovo and Gigant Saedinenie drew 0-0 in Third League - Southeast on April 7, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Dimitar Kanev in Haskovo.