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Haskovo vs Dimitrovgrad — Third League - Southeast 2018

Haskovo
Haskovo
FT
2 – 0
Dimitrovgrad
Dimitrovgrad
11/25/2018Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Round 16Stadion Dimitar Kanev (Haskovo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Haskovo54%
×Draw24%
Dimitrovgrad22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Haskovo
1.73
Dimitrovgrad
1.02

Haskovo creates 70% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 135 away

creates per match

Haskovo
1.50
Dimitrovgrad
0.80

allows per match

Haskovo
1.24
Dimitrovgrad
1.95

finishing

Haskovo+0.00on par
Dimitrovgrad+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haskovo ↓

Dimitrovgrad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Haskovo or draw
78%
Haskovo or Dimitrovgrad
76%
Draw or Dimitrovgrad
46%

Winning margin

Haskovo wins by 2+
30%
Dimitrovgrad wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Haskovo 1+ goals
82%
Haskovo 2+ goals
52%
Haskovo 3+ goals
25%
Dimitrovgrad 1+ goals
64%
Dimitrovgrad 2+ goals
27%
Dimitrovgrad 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Haskovo (draw refunded)
71%
Dimitrovgrad (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haskovo at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.24 · 46 matches

Dimitrovgrad away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.95 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haskovo attack 1.50 + Dimitrovgrad defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.73

Dimitrovgrad attack 0.80 + Haskovo defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Haskovo scores more
54%
level
24%
Dimitrovgrad scores more
22%

Haskovo at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Haskovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Haskovo vs Dimitrovgrad

Haskovo beat Dimitrovgrad 2-0 in Third League - Southeast on November 25, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Dimitar Kanev (Haskovo).