Dimitrovgrad 2–0 Haskovo: Result & Stats

Dimitrovgrad

FT

2 – 0

Haskovo

11/7/2020

Third League - Southeast · South-East - 14Stadion Minyor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Dimitrovgrad51%

×Draw25%

Haskovo24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DimitrovgradExpected goals in this matchHaskovo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.00

Dimitrovgrad

1.60

Haskovo

1.00

Dimitrovgrad creates 60% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 47 away

1.58

creates per match

0.87

1.12

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Dimitrovgrad

1.58

Haskovo

0.87

allows per match

Dimitrovgrad

1.12

Haskovo

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dimitrovgrad+0.00on par

Haskovo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dimitrovgrad ↓

Haskovo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Dimitrovgrad or draw

76%

Dimitrovgrad or Haskovo

75%

Draw or Haskovo

49%

Winning margin

Dimitrovgrad wins by 2+

27%

Haskovo wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Dimitrovgrad 1+ goals

80%

Dimitrovgrad 2+ goals

47%

Dimitrovgrad 3+ goals

22%

Haskovo 1+ goals

63%

Haskovo 2+ goals

26%

Haskovo 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Dimitrovgrad (draw refunded)

68%

Haskovo (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dimitrovgrad at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.12 · 136 matches

Haskovo away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.62 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dimitrovgrad attack 1.58 + Haskovo defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.60

Haskovo attack 0.87 + Dimitrovgrad defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Dimitrovgrad scores more

51%

level

25%

Haskovo scores more

24%

Dimitrovgrad at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Dimitrovgrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff