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Haskovo vs Borislav 2009 — Third League - Southeast 2018

Haskovo
Haskovo
CANC
00:00
Borislav 2009
Borislav 2009
5/10/2020Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · South-East - 30Stadion Dimitar Kanev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Haskovo59%
×Draw21%
Borislav 200920%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Haskovo
2.01
Borislav 2009
1.07

Haskovo creates 88% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 79 away

creates per match

Haskovo
1.50
Borislav 2009
0.91

allows per match

Haskovo
1.24
Borislav 2009
2.52

finishing

Haskovo+0.00on par
Borislav 2009+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haskovo ↓

Borislav 2009 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Haskovo or draw
80%
Haskovo or Borislav 2009
79%
Draw or Borislav 2009
41%

Winning margin

Haskovo wins by 2+
35%
Borislav 2009 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Haskovo 1+ goals
87%
Haskovo 2+ goals
59%
Haskovo 3+ goals
32%
Borislav 2009 1+ goals
66%
Borislav 2009 2+ goals
29%
Borislav 2009 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Haskovo (draw refunded)
75%
Borislav 2009 (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haskovo at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.24 · 46 matches

Borislav 2009 away — creates 0.91, concedes 2.52 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haskovo attack 1.50 + Borislav 2009 defence 2.52 → ÷2 → 2.01

Borislav 2009 attack 0.91 + Haskovo defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Haskovo scores more
59%
level
21%
Borislav 2009 scores more
20%

Haskovo at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Haskovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Haskovo host Borislav 2009

May 10, 2020: Haskovo take on Borislav 2009 in Third League - Southeast. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Haskovo host Borislav 2009 at Stadion Dimitar Kanev.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.