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HAŠK vs Mladost Petrinja — League #216 2026

HAŠK
HAŠK
FT
3 – 3
Mladost Petrinja
Mladost Petrinja
11/25/2023League #216League #216 · Center - 16ŠRC Peščenica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

HAŠK43%
×Draw23%
Mladost Petrinja33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HAŠK
1.71
Mladost Petrinja
1.48

HAŠK creates 16% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 3 away

creates per match

HAŠK
1.75
Mladost Petrinja
1.67

allows per match

HAŠK
1.29
Mladost Petrinja
1.67

finishing

HAŠK+0.00on par
Mladost Petrinja+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HAŠK ↓

Mladost Petrinja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

HAŠK or draw
67%
HAŠK or Mladost Petrinja
77%
Draw or Mladost Petrinja
57%

Winning margin

HAŠK wins by 2+
23%
Mladost Petrinja wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

HAŠK 1+ goals
82%
HAŠK 2+ goals
51%
HAŠK 3+ goals
24%
Mladost Petrinja 1+ goals
77%
Mladost Petrinja 2+ goals
43%
Mladost Petrinja 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

HAŠK (draw refunded)
56%
Mladost Petrinja (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HAŠK at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.29 · 24 matches

Mladost Petrinja away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HAŠK attack 1.75 + Mladost Petrinja defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.71

Mladost Petrinja attack 1.67 + HAŠK defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

HAŠK scores more
43%
level
23%
Mladost Petrinja scores more
33%

HAŠK at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "HAŠK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: HAŠK vs Mladost Petrinja

HAŠK and Mladost Petrinja drew 3-3 in League #216 on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at ŠRC Peščenica in Zagreb.