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Hashtag United W vs Oxford United W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Hashtag United W
Hashtag United W
Pens
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Oxford United W
Oxford United W
10/26/2025FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 1st Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Hashtag United W70%
×Draw14%
Oxford United W16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hashtag United W
3.83
Oxford United W
1.88

Hashtag United W creates 104% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

Hashtag United W
6.50
Oxford United W
3.50

allows per match

Hashtag United W
0.25
Oxford United W
1.17

finishing

Hashtag United W+0.00on par
Oxford United W+0.00on par

Total goals

92%Over
  • Over92
  • Under8

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

83%Yes
  • Yes83
  • No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hashtag United W ↓

Oxford United W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–22%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–16%
4–26%
4–34%
4–42%

Most likely 3–1 (6%) · grid covers 70% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
92%8%3.5
80%20%4.5
64%36%

Double chance

Hashtag United W or draw
84%
Hashtag United W or Oxford United W
86%
Draw or Oxford United W
30%

Winning margin

Hashtag United W wins by 2+
52%
Oxford United W wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Hashtag United W 1+ goals
98%
Hashtag United W 2+ goals
88%
Hashtag United W 3+ goals
71%
Oxford United W 1+ goals
85%
Oxford United W 2+ goals
56%
Oxford United W 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Hashtag United W (draw refunded)
82%
Oxford United W (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
80%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hashtag United W at home — creates 6.50, concedes 0.25 · 4 matches

Oxford United W away — creates 3.50, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hashtag United W attack 6.50 + Oxford United W defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 3.83

Oxford United W attack 3.50 + Hashtag United W defence 0.25 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Hashtag United W scores more
70%
level
14%
Oxford United W scores more
16%

Hashtag United W at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Hashtag United W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hashtag United W vs Oxford United W

Hashtag United W and Oxford United W drew 1-1 in FA Women's Cup on October 26, 2025.