Hartpury University 2–2 Frome Town: Result & Stats

Hartpury University

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Frome Town

3/7/2026

League #56 · Southern South - 344ED Hartpury Stadium with Vodafone

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Hartpury University25%

×Draw22%

Frome Town53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hartpury UniversityExpected goals in this matchFrome Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

2.01

Hartpury University

1.31

Frome Town

2.01

Frome Town creates 53% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 17 away

1.33

creates per match

2.35

1.67

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Hartpury University

1.33

Frome Town

2.35

allows per match

Hartpury University

1.67

Frome Town

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hartpury University+0.00on par

Frome Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hartpury University ↓

Frome Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Hartpury University or draw

47%

Hartpury University or Frome Town

78%

Draw or Frome Town

75%

Winning margin

Hartpury University wins by 2+

10%

Frome Town wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Hartpury University 1+ goals

73%

Hartpury University 2+ goals

38%

Hartpury University 3+ goals

14%

Frome Town 1+ goals

87%

Frome Town 2+ goals

59%

Frome Town 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Hartpury University (draw refunded)

32%

Frome Town (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hartpury University at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Frome Town away — creates 2.35, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hartpury University attack 1.33 + Frome Town defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.31

Frome Town attack 2.35 + Hartpury University defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Hartpury University scores more

25%

level

22%

Frome Town scores more

53%

Frome Town at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Frome Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff