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Hartlepool vs Tranmere — League Two 2018

Hartlepool
Hartlepool
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Tranmere
Tranmere
P. Clarke 45+1' (OG)
2/15/2022League TwoLeague Two · Round 24The Suit Direct Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Hartlepool41%
×Draw27%
Tranmere32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hartlepool
1.33
Tranmere
1.14

Hartlepool creates 17% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 144 away

creates per match

Hartlepool
1.20
Tranmere
0.97

allows per match

Hartlepool
1.30
Tranmere
1.47

finishing

Hartlepool+0.00on par
Tranmere+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hartlepool ↓

Tranmere →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Hartlepool or draw
68%
Hartlepool or Tranmere
73%
Draw or Tranmere
59%

Winning margin

Hartlepool wins by 2+
19%
Tranmere wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Hartlepool 1+ goals
74%
Hartlepool 2+ goals
38%
Hartlepool 3+ goals
15%
Tranmere 1+ goals
68%
Tranmere 2+ goals
32%
Tranmere 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Hartlepool (draw refunded)
56%
Tranmere (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hartlepool at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.30 · 82 matches

Tranmere away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.47 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hartlepool attack 1.20 + Tranmere defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.33

Tranmere attack 0.97 + Hartlepool defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hartlepool scores more
41%
level
27%
Tranmere scores more
32%

Hartlepool at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hartlepool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3
D. FergusonHartlepoolHartlepool · D
8.3

Match Events

45+1'
P. ClarkeOwn goal
57'
J. White← J. Grey
63'
C. McManaman← C. Jolley
81'
Joe White
89'
Sam Foley
90+1'
Timi Odusina
90+3'
Calum MacDonald
90'
G. Liddle← L. Molyneux

Possession

53%Hartlepool

Shots

8Hartlepool

Pass accuracy

52%Hartlepool

Statistics

HartlepoolTranmere
Overview
53%Possession47%
8Total Shots14
3Corners3
8Fouls18
Shots
8Total Shots14
2On Target3
5Off Target5
1Blocked6
4Inside Box7
4Outside Box7
Passing
53%Possession47%
424Total Passes363
266Accurate Passes212
63%Pass Accuracy58%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
8Fouls18
2Yellow Cards2
2Offsides2

Match Recap: Hartlepool vs Tranmere

Hartlepool beat Tranmere 1-0 in League Two on February 15, 2022.

Goals: P. Clarke (45+1' o.g.).

Hartlepool controlled possession (53%) and registered 8 shots to 14.

The match was played at The Suit Direct Stadium in Hartlepool, County Durham.